Use case · Operations

Is freight driving the EMEA margin drop?Tested as a hypothesis, not assumed.

Freight cost per unit rose 14% in EMEA. Operations wants to know whether it explains the margin decline before anyone renegotiates a contract.

How it is answered

A possible cause
is tracked as a hypothesis.

Aether keeps evidence, findings and hypotheses apart, so a likely story is never presented as a fact.

Finance / Q3 margin review / InvestigationIllustrative

Clarified“Last quarter” = Q3 FY26, Jul–Sep· declared calendar, Finance

Evidence4

E1 · queryMargin by region, Q2 → Q31,284,602 rows · Finance model

E2 · queryCost per unit by region6 cost lines × 3 regions

E3 · queryPrice index by regionEMEA flat, ±0.3%

LimitationSupplier price feed unavailableRecorded as a gap, not as evidence

Findings3

F1 · from E1Gross margin −3.2 pts to 38.3%

F2 · from E1EMEA contributes −1.9 pts

F3 · from E2, E3EMEA cost per unit +5.8%, prices flat

Hypotheses2

H1Open · trackedInbound freight cost per unit drives the EMEA declineTest: freight stays above USD 4.50 through Q4

H2OpenMix shifted toward lower-margin IndustrialNext step: margin by product group

Decision supportPeople decide

Forecast · from F1Q4 FY26 margin 37.9–38.8%Regression on 12 weeks, where supported

OptionsRenegotiate EMEA lanesTrade-off: effect lags one quarterAdjust EMEA pricesTrade-off: volume risk

AssumptionFreight stays above USD 4.50Owner: Finance leadership

Fig. — Evidence, findings, hypotheses, decision supportIllustrative data

How Aether gets there4 steps

01Records the hypothesis
Freight cost per unit stays above USD 4.50 through Q4 FY26.
02Gathers evidence
Shipments, invoices and the finance model, read under the person's access.
03Tests it in the open
The hypothesis moves from Open to Testing, with what would confirm or refute it.
04Leaves the decision to people
Correlation alone never confirms a cause. Aether supports the decision; it does not make it.

Inside the platformRelated